Commentary: Going Negative Still Works... If you do it right

I was reading the Davis Enterprise post mortem on the Assembly campaign that they largely did not cover. I say that less as a means of boasting than true concern. It hit me on the Saturday before the election when the Yamada campaign was hosting a press conference in response to the "Latte Mailer" and the only press there was myself. Imagine being attacked, you do not have time to respond with your own mailer, and instead you have a press conference where the press does not show up. How do you get your message out?

As it turns out that slew of negative mailers did not help Ed Voice or Christopher Cabaldon. The public largely had either seen through it or tuned out by that point and Mariko Yamada won a narrow but surprising victory both in the pre-election absentee ballots and on election day itself.

Nevertheless, though we had no access to polls, it was easy to see that Cabaldon was comfortably ahead four weeks before the election. According to him that translated to a 14-point lead that felt to most of us like a 24-point lead.

And while Davis Enterprise Columnist Bob Dunning spends a good portion of his column yesterday complaining about the onslaught of ads in his mailbox--the ads by and large worked.

Did Cabaldon hit on too many mailers with help from the IEs? Probably. But as he pointed out to me, in Davis people were complaining about the quantity, in parts of Solano, they did not even know there was an election.

Most of the early Cabaldon pieces were positive ads, designed to sell the candidacy of Cabaldon. They were not primarily negative ads.

In the Enterprise article Cabaldon found the culprit by examining the polls.

"Cabaldon, on the other hand, said today he has reviewed polling that organizations did in the weeks leading up to the election and there is no doubt about what spoiled his lead: negative mailers."

It seems as soon as the negative ads came out, Cabaldon was thrown off-balance. Or at least his IEs were.

Bob Dunning makes a good point, the Farmer's Market ad was largely a good one, but there was one key mistake that people noted.

Dunning writes:

"Oh yeah, I forgot. Chris used the Farmers' Market as a backdrop for one of his TV ads where he tried to suggest to Davis voters that he was one of us with the closing words: 'But this is Davis and we're smarter than that.'

We? Does that suggest some sort of brotherhood between the citizens of Davis and candidate Cabaldon?"

Bob Dunning is correct here, anyone knows that Christopher Cabaldon is not from Davis and so when he says, "we're smarter than that," it rings hollow and sounds like pandering.

But the larger points that Bob Dunning makes are wrong. Was it nasty? Oh sure. But without the nasty Yamada IEs, she is not in the race. She does not win.

So here are the real lessons that you must learn from this race:

1. Too many positives mailers early by Cabaldon. It is nice that he was trumpeting himself, but you only need a handful, not multiple mailers each day.

2. Going negative works even when the issue is somewhat silly like the car boot. Or perhaps others were more offended by the car boot than I think.

3. Be the first one to go negative. Cabaldon was the second one in the fight and for some reason it always looks defensive when you respond.

4. Negative ads have to be simple. The Wal Mart ad was effective for the Yamada side because everyone understands the issue around Wal Mart. The Cabaldon response was too difficult to discuss. If you have to explain it, you lose. If someone says you take Wal Mart money and brought Wal Mart to West Sacramento, it is hard to response I actually was against it, but I voted for it due to legal issues, even though I have been bragging about redevelopment in West Sacramento and Wal Mart has come up as part of the redevelopment. Sorry, too long.

5. Negative ads can backfire. You cannot just make stuff up that sounds non-credible. Three of the attack ads by Ed Voice just made no sense--the pay raise, the Latte, and especially the Yolo County Housing Authority. As dumb as you think the electorate is, they seem to see through some of the ads.

Matt Rexroad was quoted in the article arguing that Mariko Yamada's personal precinct walking did not factor in. I tend to agree on that point. However, there is secondary point and that is that the unions had 250 people in the field on the weekend before and the day of the election. They did a better job of getting out their vote than Cabaldon who could only manage 100 people in the field during that time. And I think that does matter.

Bottom line folks, negative ads work but they are not a guarantee. They have to hit on vulnerabilities with the candidate. I just do not think that Yamada's vulnerabilities rested with her support of pay increases, spending on Latte program, or her handling of the Yolo County Housing Authority. Whereas Cabaldon did have apparent vulnerabilities with the perception that he seemed to think he was above the law and the perception that he was beholden to big developers and big box retail. Thus the Yamada IEs were more effective in the end, than Christopher Cabaldon's.

---Doug Paul Davis reporting

Three Days Later: 8th AD is Still A Stunner

To illustrate how improbable Mariko Yamada's victory over Christopher Cabaldon was, let us recount a few key watermarks in the race.

Almost from the start, it seemed an uphill battle as Cabaldon had the audacity in January of 2007, weeks after Lois Wolk officially took office for her third and final term as Assemblywoman, there he stood in Yamada's home town with two of her colleagues, two members of the Davis City Council, two members of his own city council, and the Mayor of Woodland (and to boot Jeff Monroe was in uniform that day, but attended the event to show support for Cabaldon).

It seemed before Mariko Yamada even announced she was way behind and she never caught up (or so we thought).

To make matters worse, Yamada had turned off a large portion of her base in the Spring and Summer of 2007 with an ill-advised support (or at least non-opposition) to study areas on the Davis periphery. Large numbers of people who had been supporters of Yamada turned on her. There was talk of recall. A hundred people showed up for the County Supervisors meeting in July. Even the divided Davis City Council spoke with one voice.

In the winter of 2008, Cabaldon had engineered a seemingly easy victory for the party's endorsement. Even a few controversies at the pre-endorsement conference faded away to a resounding victory at the party convention.

Later that same week sitting Assemblywoman Lois Wolk broke her official neutrality to back Christopher Cabaldon. He stood in Suisun City with his three predecessors Lois Wolk, Helen Thomson, and Tom Hannigan. It was the perfect photo-op.

You had dueling headquarter openings--a packed houses for Cabaldon's openning while at the same time, Yamada had about 30 people for an envelope stuffing party.

Nearly every major elected official backed Cabaldon. Mayors, Yamada's own colleagues, Supervisors, School Board Members, past members of the legislature, the Democratic Party, everyone except for most of the major unions. But judging from the efforts of the unions at the party convention, that would not be a big deal.

But something happened to change all of this. If there was a villain in this stage it was EdVoice. There was a moment at the party convention that was almost a portent. After Cabaldon received a resounding victory in the 8th AD Caucus at the convention, the Yamada folks had a few hours to garner signatures to pull the nomination once again off of consent. But a group of people in orange shirts showed up and were very coy about who they were and they shadowed the Yamada people trying to dissuade delegates from signing up. It was a very creepy moment in the election.

By April, the citizens of the 8th Assembly District were deluged with mailers. One a day for weeks. Three weeks out, we were starting to hear from people who had been Cabaldon supporters. They were complaining about too much material. Some were environmentalists concerned with the waste of paper. Others were becoming uncomfortable with the big money and corporate backing.

And yet, even at this point, it seemed a formality. The Yamada campaign was still struggling to gain traction, seizing on minors issues such as the booting of Cabaldon's car.

In fact, the first counterattacks by Yamada's IEs focused on the car booting, Wal Mart, the WRONG achronym, things like that. And again, it seemed they were desperate and grasping for straws.

EdVoice was relentless. But now the union IEs were starting to match them piece for piece. EdVoice struck back. Three viscious and largely unfounded attacks. First, the pay increase, which was dubious at best particularly since the pay raises were tied to judicial salaries and not under the control of the board directly. Second, the Latte piece which called a $91,000 jobs programs for the disabled wasteful. Finally, an desparate and untrue attempt to link Yamada to the embattled Yolo County Housing Authority and the blatant lie that suggested a linkage between that organization and foreclosures.

Cabaldon's well-financed and well-organized machine proved no match for the larger and better organized labor machine that worked relentlessly the last week to turn out supporters across the district. By the time it was over, Yamada had engineered a stunner. When absentee ballots were reported and Yamada had the lead, everyone knew that it was over. The lead held throughout the night.

This is probably the second most stunning victory that I had seen. The only one more stunning was almost 15 years ago when a largely unknown College Professor Walter Capps beat the party's handpicked choice for a Congressional nomination. Professor Capps stunned everyone by defeating that individual. So much so that the Republican nominee had to change her victory speech.

Mariko Yamada's victory in a heavily democratic district means almost certainly the third straight election of a Davis-based Assemblywoman. However, she is of a different ilk. For the first time in 12 years, Craig Reynolds will not be Chief of Staff in this District.

If there was a villain in all of this, it was EdVoice. Their excesses opened the door for this victory. Their mail barrage turned people off and their unfair attacks were the coup de grace for the election.

Independent Expenditures are in many ways a real problem. Campaigns lose control of their messages. They are largely unregulated and unaccountable to anyone. And yet they can drop hundreds of thousands and change the dynamics of a race. That is what happened here. EdVoice likely the culprit here and labor likely the hero on behalf of a Yamada Campaign that had previously been outspent and out-organized.

For Cabaldon it is a major setback for a talented and still young politician. People were tounting him as a potential future speaker. Now, he is left searching for his future.

For Yamada it is the beginning of a Sacramento career. She has wounds to heal still and fences to mend both with her opponent's former supporters and her own.

---Doug Paul Davis reporting

Advocates for People With Disabilies Condemn "Latte" Mailer

On Saturday Morning at the Davis Art Center, advocates for people with disabilities gathered to express their anger and outrage at a mailer sent from Ed Voice.

As we reported yesterday, the ad question spending $91,000 for what it calls "coffee service." However, it ignores the fact that the coffee cart is just part of a new Yolo County training program that will help people dealing with mental illness learn valuable job skills and empower them towards independence.

The program was passed by the Yolo County Board of Supervisors by a 3-2 vote along party lines.

The Sacramento Bee's ad watch roundly criticized the ad:

"$91,000 for coffee service?" reads one flier attacking Yamada, a Yolo County supervisor, for voting to subsidize a coffee cart in a county building. "What was Yamada thinking?"

Turns out it's no ordinary coffee cart – it's designed to provide jobs to people with mental disabilities.

Yolo supervisors voted 3-2 to commit $91,000 to the Turning Point agency for equipment and training. The money stems from a 2005 tax on millionaires that can be spent only for mental-health services.

At the top of the ad, they quote an unnamed Yolo County Supervisor: "When I first read it, I thought it was a mistake. When I heard the explanation, it was worse." Of course what they do not tell you is that that county supervisor was Republican Matt Rexroad.

Supervisor Rexroad reports on his blog yesterday:

"I am now getting hate mail from people for voting against that coffee cart. I am telling you right now --- I will never vote for anything like that coffee cart -- ever. I am proud that I voted no."

This simply illustrates the partisan dimension to the vote. The problem of course is that Cabaldon is a Democrat trying to court Democratic votes.

Marilyn Moyle was one of the participants in the press conference yesterday. She is the Chair of Yolo County's Mental Health Board and a member of NAMI. She described in detail how her son benefited from similar vocational programs in landscaping.

“I’m very concerned about the misleading information that has been mailed out.... I know how important vocational opportunities are for mental health clients – for their recoveries and their self-esteem.”

Christine Totah is a local advocate for people with disabilities. Her son is 12 and has autism. She is also the Treasurer for Mariko Yamada's campaign due to Supervisor Yamada's longtime advocacy for people with disabilities.

Ms. Totah expressed anger, outrage, and disgust at the mailer.

“The mailer really turned my stomach as a taxpayer and a voter.

Even though my son is only twelve, I feel I need to stand up and defend this program and make sure this service stays in place for him because he will need job coaching as he grows up so he can be a productive member of society.

Our coffee cart is an educational service and when compared to the cost of institutionalizing someone suffering from mental illness, the $91,000 is a bargain. It’s one of those issues where a taxpayer in Yolo County can be really proud of where their tax dollars are going.”

She also wondered about an educational advocacy group such as EdVoice attacking a program that at its base is an educational program.

While the Cabaldon campaign has not provided an official response to this, there is a general sense around the community that EdVoice went way too far with both this ad and the Yolo County Housing Authority ad. There has also been considerable backlash against the slew of IEs against Cabaldon by various union interests.

On the other hand, internal polling now shows this is now a neck and neck race. A month ago, Cabaldon was going to walk away with this nomination, now that is very much in doubt. Without the IEs on behalf of the Yamada campaign, they were sunk. This caused groups like the Teacher's Union to go hard and negative the last few weeks. The EdVoice folks had access to polling as wll and quickly went negative against Yamada.

Campaigns go negative because it works unfortunately. These IEs are accountable to no one and they have almost no regulation. At the end of the day, Yamada would not be in this race without them.

So where does that leave the public and the political process? It is hard to say. This race is not alone in that effect either.

From the perspective of public discourse this is a tragedy. The ads launched by EdVoice were untrue for the most part, misleading, mean, and vicious. At the press conference yesterday, families who had children with disabilities felt victimized by the Latte ad. The Housing Authority Ad was a disgrace. The CTA sending out a picture with Cabaldon's car booted was petty and disgraceful for an organization that should be advocating for children, teachers, and education.

Someone has to say no to this stuff.

---Doug Paul Davis reporting

Now EdVoice Has Gone Too Far With Attacks on Yamada

Earlier this week, we criticized the Yamada campaign and their Independent Expenditure committee surrogates for attacks on Christopher Cabaldon that were minor and nitpicky at best. Their slew of attacks have generated considerable response from EdVoice. Yesterday my mailbox was filled up with eight or nine pieces from the Assembly campaigns and the IEs. Christopher Cabaldon recorded a cable ad to respond to some of the attacks.

Here is the response from Cabaldon up on youtube:



However, this race has now turned ugly with two vicious attacks by EdVoice on Yamada.

This ad has angered advocates for people with disabilities. The program was designed to help people with disabilities get jobs--of course the ad makes no mention of that. The Yamada campaign led by advocates for people with disabilities will have a press conference this morning to refute and denounce the political attack.

The Sacramento Bee's ad watch already roundly criticized the ad:

"$91,000 for coffee service?" reads one flier attacking Yamada, a Yolo County supervisor, for voting to subsidize a coffee cart in a county building. "What was Yamada thinking?"

Turns out it's no ordinary coffee cart – it's designed to provide jobs to people with mental disabilities.

Yolo supervisors voted 3-2 to commit $91,000 to the Turning Point agency for equipment and training. The money stems from a 2005 tax on millionaires that can be spent only for mental-health services.

At the top of the ad, they quote an unnamed Yolo County Supervisor: "When I first read it, I thought it was a mistake. When I heard the explanation, it was worse." Of course what they do not tell you is that that county supervisor was Republican Matt Rexroad. I wonder why they would not name the county supervisor? Nor did they tell you that the program passed with a 3-2 vote with Cabaldon supporters Helen Thomson and Mike McGowan voting for it. The two opposing votes were the two Republicans on the board.

As bad as that ad was, the one that came out yesterday in my opinion was even worse.

The reference here is to the problems faced by the Yolo County Housing Authority. Their former director, David Serena, faced a long inquiry by the Yolo County Grand Jury and the Yolo County District Attorney's Office. This spring, the only legal charges faced by Mr. Serena were dismissed by a visiting Judge.

But what does that have to do with Mariko Yamada? Not a whole lot. She was not involved in this directly. The County Board of Supervisors was criticized for their oversight, but that does not fall on Mariko Yamada alone, it also falls on Cabaldon supporters Helen Thomson and Mike McGowan. To claim that Yamada is responsible for the problems at the Yolo County Housing Authority is pushing it. To then extrapolate to the larger foreclosure problem is blatantly false.

As several people pointed out to me, they criticize Mariko Yamada not because she was responsible for the problems with the Yolo County Housing Authority but rather because she failed to stand behind David Serena when it was clear them that he was the victim of some kind of vendetta and witch hunt. The charges he faced, as we covered earlier this spring, were trumped up and specious. He faced years in prison for a clerical error performed not by him but by an administrator.

To criticize Mariko Yamada for the entire episode is about 90 percent fabrication and 10% truth. This is simply a vicious political attack against Mariko Yamada by Ed Voice. I do not see that the citizens and voters of the 8th Assembly District are well served by these attacks. There is no truthful information in them that would help someone make up their minds.

Mariko Yamada's surrogates are not better than Ed Voice either. The WRONG attack, the booted car, and the Wal Mart attack were all very negative and distorted as well. Something has to be done about these independent expenditure committees. They are out of control and they thoroughly harm the process. People are turned off by these kinds of attacks, and as often as not, they end up saying a pox on both their houses when they cannot figure out the truth.

---Doug Paul Davis reporting