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Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Election Day Coverage and Chat

So tonight the Vanguard will be live blogging various election results from both around the country, the state, and locally. We hope to talk to local officials as results start coming in tonight. We will have a full wrap up in the morning. In the meantime, use the comment section here for any discussion and debate in advance of election returns.

3:30 UPDATE:

First results trickling in. Kentucky and Indiana. Neither state called. Kentucky should be a safe state for McCain and McCain leads. Indiana a toss up, Obama with a very very small lead there.

News coming up at the top of the hour with a slew of poll closings.

Gap has closed in Kentucky. Lead holding in Indiana. Although it looks like a big Democratic stronghold has come in from Louisville. Huge African-American turnout in North Carolina.

4:00 UPDATE:

Kentucky called for McCain. Vermont called for Obama. No surprises there. Indiana is too close to call. Georgia too early to call. Virginia too early to call. South Carolina too early to call.

Mark Warner wins Virginia Senate, a Democratic pick up, but no surprise.

Lunsford the Democrat in Kentucky Senate is slightly ahead now and polling ahead of Obama. That one bears watching.

The Kentucky Senate race is going back and forth. That will be a key as to whether the Dems can get to 60. Indiana Presidential race going back and forth as well.


North Carolina Too CLOSE to call, Ohio is Too EARLY to call, West Virginia is Too EARLY, Georgia is Too Early, Virginia and South Carolina Too Early.

South Carolina goes for McCain, no surprise there.


Huge amount of closures now...

Pennsylvania goes to Obama

In other news: Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Maryland, Connecticut, New Hampshire (that is a somewhat big one), Maine, Delaware, DC (shocking... not) all for Obama
Tennessee, Oklahoma for McCain

I don't see anyway that McCain can win this election if Penn holds.

Apparently MSNBC has called Penn for Obama but not CNN. They are being more cautious. We'll see.

Florida too close and Missouri too close
Alabama too early, Mississippi too early

Jeanne Shaheen wins NH Senate--pick up for the Dems
Mississippi senate too close to call, Dems need this one to win 60


NC Senate for Hagan over Liddy Dole, another pick up
Virginia now too close to call, with McCain with a lead
Arkansas too early to call

Virginia is interesting, I remember watching two years ago and Webb was behind all night until the Northern Virginia precincts came in and he pulled out a late win for the Dems; we'll see. This one bears watching. The other thing to note is that Obama is well under performing Warner in this race.

Georgia called by MSNBC for McCain, big win for him although it was mainly considered a lean for him. What that means is that the landslide factor for Obama is off, but we still have not seen a state turn from 2004.

Now CNN Projects Pennsylvania for Obama

Lunsford hanging in there in Kentucky, still think that is an outside chance, but you never know. Key places in Virginia have not come in yet, so no cause for concern other than it will be closer than maybe hoped.

Really intriguing numbers in North Carolina so far for Obama, we'll have to watch that one. If he wins NC, this is probably a 350 electoral win.

Alabama called for McCain (again not a surprise)

Fifteen states closing at 6:00 pm

Tennessee called for McCain (as expected)


Rhode Island, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Wisconsin for Obama
Wyoming and North Dakota for McCain

North Dakota the only one that is somewhat surprising that it went this early. It was thought to be in play but it went early.

Arizona Too CLOSE to call.

Texas, Louisiana, Colorado, New Mexico, Nebraska, South Dakota all too early to call.

Tom Udall wins the Senate Seat in New Mexico, that's a Dem pick up. Fourth of the night.

McConnell holds on to win in KY

West Virginia called for McCain, that was a McCain lean. Still no flips from 2004.

MSNBC has called Ohio for OBAMA. That is game if it holds.

CNN is being more conservative than MSNBC but has followed them. That's the first flip.

Louisiana for McCain, no surprise.

Fox News also calling Ohio for Obama... CNN more conservative in their calling than Fox. Interesting. Now CNN calls it for Obama as well.

Obama wins New Mexico, his second flip.

He has 200 electoral, I can easily count 70. So at 6:30 Pacific Time it looks like barring a major error or a major shock, there will be a President Obama.

Obama has now taken a small lead in Virginia, the pattern from 2006 Senate Race is holding.

McCain wins Texas according to MSNBC (again no surprise)


Chris Shayes (R) loses his seat in CT, he was the last elected Republican in the House in New England.

Obama wins Iowa--another flip for Obama, not a surprise (remember Saturday the McCain campaign was saying they were tied in Iowa).

Utah and Kansas for McCain (no surprises)

Montana is too close to call
Nevada is too EARLY to call (Obama leading in the Exit Polls)

Florida remains too close to call despite a healthy Obama lead
North Carolina tightening to a 44K lead with 70% in for Obama
Virginia Obama with a 12K lead with 83% reporting
McCain with a lead in Missouri by 30K
McCain with a 5000 vote in Indina
Arizona too close to call

Obama up to 207 electoral votes and you still have the West Coast and Hawaii which are sure things. The question is now whether Obama can get to 350 and he may still do so if all breaks his way.

Mississippi goes for McCain
South Dakota abortion ban fails

Obama has a lead still in Virginia and Fairfax county is only half in.

North Carolina another key county around Charlotte is only partially in. Obama a small lead.

MSNBC is saying they will not call these states until they are all in.

The four western states have 77 electoral votes. It seems conceivable that shortly after 8, that this will officially be over, but that depends on how quickly they are willing to call the west after 8.

South Dakota goes for McCain that was a McCain lead. thinks Virginia looks good for Obama and Indiana a little less so but the areas outstanding would favor Obama.

McCain ahead in North Carolina now, that's too tough to figure.

Nebraska except for the second cong. district goes for McCain, but Obama has a chance in the second cong. district, if he wins that, he could get an electoral vote...

If you are watching CNN, Star Trek is real with a Hologram of Will.I.Am. Woah...

McCain will concede at 8 pm apparently

Virginia goes for Obama--big win


Oregon, Washington, California, and Hawaii all go to Obama

AP Calls Florida for Obama as well

Obama with 333 so far according to MSNBC. John Lewis speaking on MSNBC, is anyone has earned this, it is him. Jesse Jackson with tears in his eyes. I'm sure that will piss off the right wingers, but he too has earned it.

Yolo County Elections will have first returns about 8:15 pm

Colorado to Obama, another turn

Arizona stays with McCain


Great speech by McCain, very gracious and understanding of the historic importance

Still undecided: North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana, Nevada, Montana, and Alaska. Obama is ahead in four of the first five, all but Missouri and he's in range there with a good showing in St. Louis.

John Lewis: "I never thought I would live to see an African American President during my lifetime." For those who do not know, Lewis almost lost his life to a mob on the bridge to Selma fighting for simple rights. What an amazing country this is.

Now Nevada goes for Obama, 338 electoral votes.

In the Senate:
Minnesota, Oregon, Mississippi and Georgia have not been called, if the Dems win three, they get to 60. I can count to two, it will take a lot to get to three.

And a great speech by Obama

Who knew Missouri might be more red than North Carolina and Indiana.

Demos will gain at least 20 seats in the House, even a 54 seat swing in 2010 would not wrest control of the house from the Dems.


W has 72% with the absentees
N is trailing with 48%

My experience has been that generally absentee results hold although N is too close to call. W may pass, we'll have to see.

Prop 8 is ahead
Prop 4 is tied

UPDATE at 9:45 PM

Man Yolo County is slow. Still waiting to go beyond the early votes.

In district 4: Charlie Brown is tied at 50 with McClintock

Kevin Johnson up by 8 early in the Sac Mayor's Race


Abortion trailing by 4 and Same Sex leading by 6 with one third reporting. Neither one are over.

Measure W is still leading, 72.9 yes
N is still trailing by about 300 votes

Right now, I'd say W passes and N is too close to call

Indiana called for Obama now 349 electoral votes

Bob Shrum on MSNBC... Still remember the joke one of my Pol Sci Profs said back in 2004, Bob Shrum is the guy who ran every Democratic losing race in the last quarter centruary (back to Carter in 1976 I believe). The three he didn't run: Clinton 1992, 96, and Obama 2008. Coincidence???

Obama up by over 5 million votes and nearly 5% of the vote, the polls turned out to be pretty accurate

One thing I will be really happy about--if I never hear about Joe the Plummer again

Yes on 8's advantage down to 52-48

Kevin Johnson is the new mayor of Sac, up 57-42...

Wow, Obama up 20 in California.

Here's one:

Obama wins Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district:

Obama: 114,212
McCain: 113,853

McCain wins Montana (darn) narrowly

Al Franken takes a very slim, late lead in the Minnesota Senate Race.

Rahm Emmanuel Chief of Staff? That's the rumor.

Still waiting on W, calling Sup. Hammond and going to bed. Also Charlie Brown locked in a very close one.

Alright two weird things... Georgia isn't over yet, 245K lead but Atlanta has like 600K early votes not counted yet. AP has not called it but CNN and MSNBC did.

And Nebraska's second wasn't final yet, and it's very close.

Obama now has a 6 million vote lead and a five point spread in the popular vote


33% reporting, lead holds for W, in fact it has increased 73.7%
Measure N now trails by 5%, 558 votes

Looks like Stevens may win in Alaska, that would be a stunner. Looks like the only effect was a Stevens-effect since he had tanked in the polls after his conviction.

Have some finals to report on the initiatives:

Prop 2 passes by a wide margin, apparently the scare tactics did not work
Props 5, 6, 7, 10 go down by large margins. I wanted 5 to pass, but I'll trade it for the other three going down. We are still going to have to deal with the problems of prison costs and room for non-violent drug offenders.
And prop 12 passes easily

More local returns, W up to 36% reporting and over 74% passing
N trails by just under 600 votes with 23% reporting

Wolk ends up winning 63-37; Yamada with 65 percent. So the 8th AD only slightly less competitive than the seemingly competitive 5th Senate District ended up.

no more updates for now on the other locals

Going to bed. Look for today's stories a bit later than usual.

Got some good quote from the Measure W race.

---David M. Greenwald reporting