Tuesday Briefs

Letter to Blog Editor:

Lost in projection

Mr. Kirk Trost was incorrect in public comment at the Board Meeting last Thursday when he suggested that the difference between the different sets of K-6 enrollment projections, which were based on different mobility factors, is negligible. The difference in K-6 enrollment projections between the “October Projections (Mobility X)” and the January Projections (Mobility # 2) is 323 students by 2012, the last year for which Mobility X data is available – since the mobility factor used in the October projections is not public information, I call it X.

The October projections were produced for 2006-12 using 2005 data and presented to the BUSATF sometime in fall 2006 but were never made public until January 4 when the Davis Demographics & Planning included them in its PowerPoint presentation at the School Board meeting. Greg Davis, the President of DD&P, underlined the fact that these projections estimated the 2006 enrollments rather precisely (8,580 K-12 projected; 8,606 K-12 actual).

Since these projections are not accessible to the larger public anywhere else than at the website of Davis OPEN (www.davisopen.org), I am posting the numbers below. The four numbers that follow a particular year are for K-6, 7-9, 10-12, and K-12, respectively. The numbers in parentheses are the ones in the Final Report of the Task Force (p. 19) on the basis of which the recommendation to close Valley Oak was made. I believe the Board members should base their final decision on the October projections since they are the only ones that were tested by time and proven to be sound. An alternative could be to take the average of the two projections, or seek an independent review of the different sets of projections in a way that is open to the public, and not just a selected few.

2007: 4,334 (4,276); 2,075 (2,063); 2,110 (2,147); 8,519 (8,486) – 2008: 4,368 (4,246); 2,033 (2,019); 2,136 (2,141); 8,537 (8,407) – 2009: 4,357 (4,149); 2,120 (2,075); 2,115 (2,133); 8,592 (8,357) – 2010: 4,439 (4,126); 2,105 (2,052); 2,172 (2,171); 8,716 (8,350) – 2011: 4,495 (4,193); 2,140 (2,080); 2,157 (2,151); 8,792 (8,423) – 2012: 4,513 (4,190); 2,131 (2,023); 2,261 (2,211); 8,905 (8,424).

Baki Tezcan